Past Events

USACC Discussion with Dr. Fiona Hill

"The May 2002 Bush-Putin Summit: Its Effects on the Southern Caucasus"

June 7, 2002

On June 7, 2002, the United States - Azerbaijan Chamber of Commerce (USACC) organized a discussion titled "The May 2002 Bush-Putin Summit: Its Effects on the South Caucasus" featuring Dr. Fiona Hill, Foreign Policy Studies Fellow at the Brooking Institution. Dr. Hill talked about two main issues, (1) the Bush-Putin Summit and its effects on the U.S.-Russian relations, (2) the developing relations between Russia and Turkey and its effects on the South Caucasus. The talk concluded with a discussion on a variety of topics including Turkey's status in the South Caucasus, Iran's influence and possible threats to the region, and Russia's status.

Dr. Hill started the talk by summarizing the results of the Bush-Putin Summit. She stated that there is a relatively positive trajectory after the Summit in U.S.- Russia relations. A series of agreements between the two countries have been reached including on, strategic arms reductions, a strategic framework for bilateral economic and political cooperation that will cover joint activity in the war on terrorism, and a joint statement on the beginning of a strategic energy dialogue.

Despite all these achievements, there still is a great deal of mistrust in Russia toward the U.S., and a feeling that Russian expectations have not been met. The lifting of the 1974 Jackson-Vanick restrictions on Russian trade and NATO expansion to the Baltics are still issues that need to be solved. Furthermore, the U.S.-Russian relationship has not been able to move beyond the old agenda of issues from the end of the Cold War and the new but limited cooperation in Afghanistan. The close political, economic and military relationship between Iran and Russia was the most controversial issue at the summit.

The greatest achievement on the Russian side happened after the Bush-Putin Summit and was the recognition of Russia by the EU and the U.S. as a market economy, which will be the first step toward Russia's accession to the WTO.

Moving on to the possible impact of these new events on the Southern Caucasus, Dr. Hill affirmed that, at this juncture, nothing in the Southern Caucasus seems to have derailed U.S.-Russian relations for now. Nothing in the U.S.- Russian relationship seems to have unduly complicated developments in the Southern Caucasus either.

Dr. Hill then focused more on the possible developments in Russian-Turkish relations and its impact on the Southern Caucasus. She said that the possibility of a rapprochement and partnership between Russia and Turkey could ultimately transform the politics of the Southern Caucasus even more so than any dramatic change in U.S- Russian relations.

At the beginning of 1990s, everyone had predicted intense competition between Turkey and Russia in the Caucasus, which has ultimately not been realized. Turkey has been unsuccessful in gaining traction over the region, because it has focused on its own internal political and economic problems as well as on other foreign policy priorities in Europe and the Middle East. Like Turkey, Russia has also been troubled by its own economic weakness and was diverted in the 1990s by competing foreign policy priorities, especially by its post-Cold war relationship with the United States.

The primary reason and the transforming force behind the development of the bilateral relationship between Turkey and Russia is gas. Turkey, along with Europe, is Russia's major market for gas. Some of the largest energy business deals in Russia have been signed with Turkey. Moreover, Russia is beginning to see Turkey as a transit country for its energy resources rather than simply as an export market, or as a source of competition in the region.

With respect to the EU, Turkey and Russia are "on the same page." Both countries have complex negotiations with the EU, not only for the development of their economies but for their future political and cultural identities as European countries.

In addition, Russia and Turkey share similar views with respect to Iran and Iraq, which differ from those of the U.S.. Both countries have improved their relationships with Israel. Further improvements in U.S.-Russian relations as well as in Turkish-Russian relations and the U.S. willingness to consult both countries on potentially contentious U.S. policies in the boarder region, could help foster a real Russo-Turkish relationship in moving forward.

A pragmatic, stable economic and political partnership between Turkey and Russia in Eurasia -and in the Southern Caucasus in particular- would seem tantamount to the reconciliation of France and Germany after WWII in Europe, opening the same kinds of prospects for economic development and integration in the region.

However, a downturn in U.S.-Russian relations could easily re-ignite the sense of regional competition. And, as many Russians have noted, if Turkey is ultimately rejected by the EU, this will greatly undermine Russia's own chances for closer economic relations with Europe.

There are two other obstacles for an optimistic scenario to play out. First, the Armenian Diaspora in Europe and the U.S. remains resistant to Armenia's rapprochement with Turkey. Second, the U.S. plans to invade Iraq and overthrow Saddam Hussein cast a shadow over every other issue for Turkey, threatening even greater destabilization.

Dr. Hill opened the floor for discussion with the question: "Is the improvement of relations between Russia and the U.S. and thus between Russia and Turkey a bright spot on the usual cloudy horizon for the Southern Caucasus?"

As a reply to a question on Russia's new role as a secondary player in the international arena, Dr. Hill answered by noting that the U.S. strategic focus has now shifted from Europe and the Balkans to the Middle East and Central and South Asia, which makes Russia once more a factor that can not be entirely discounted in regional calculations for the U.S.. She added that Russia also remains a factor for Europe, and that, for example, the U.S. had started a discussion with Russia on the ABM treaty in 2001 due to pressure from its European allies and in spite of its initial unwillingness to do so.

She also responded to another question about Russia's objections to the possible inclusion of Azerbaijan and Georgia in NATO by commenting on the fact that this was not simply a question for Russia. She noted that the European members of NATO and the U.S. have their own internal disagreements about responsibilities and expansion, and their own policy problems that will have an impact on this issue irrespective of Russia's position.

When asked for her remarks on Iran and the U.S., Dr. Hill stated that U.S. foreign policy is now concentrated on the war on terrorism and many other regional issues have been ignored as a result. The U.S. response to the Iranian threat is to put political pressure on and isolate the country within the region, which would likely increase the threat Iran posed to stability in the Southern Caucasus.

Finally, Dr. Hill commented on the current status of Turkey in the region. She noted that Turkey faced many economic and political problems including possible early elections, an impending crisis over Cyprus with the EU, and the challenge of improving its relations with Armenia. According to Dr. Hill, to deal with all these factors Turkey would ultimately have to stick to its current economic and political reform plans and follow the criteria laid down both by the IMF and the EU. Only by strengthening its economy and continuing with political reform would Turkey be able to withstand the challenges it faced in its foreign policy. Turkey's current economic crisis and political weakness prevents it from playing a more assertive regional role.