These are exciting times in the Caucasus as we celebrate the tenth anniversary of an independent Azerbaijan, Armenia and Georgia. Each nation continues to move forward on the path of economic development, with signs clear to all. In Tbilisi, the historic center of the capital has been rebuilt following the damage wrought by civil war. In Yerevan, a vibrancy has returned to the city, with new enterprises opening every month. At the forefront is Baku. There, from the airport to downtown, an economic boom is evident, which may transform the entire nation. Azerbaijan's significant natural and human resources have attracted billions of dollars of foreign investment, which are helping fuel this dramatic growth.
The future of the Caucasus appears brighter today than ever before, with a promise of greater prosperity for its people. There remain, however, significant dark clouds in the sky. The unresolved conflicts of the region - Nagorno-Karabakh and Abkhazia in particular - cast long shadows, placing considerable limits on how far and how fast economic growth can proceed. These conflicts are major impediments to establishing the regional cooperation and integration, which is essential if Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Georgia (as well as their immediate neighbors) are ever to realize their full potential. The United States is committed to helping advance democracy, economic development and security in the Caucasus. These goals demand that peaceful resolution of conflicts in this region remains a top priority.
Efforts to resolve the conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh have taken center stage in 2001. In January and March, Presidents Heydar Aliyev and Robert Kocharian visited Paris to meet together, and with French President Jacques Chirac, to explore possible solutions. Those discussions led to formal peace talks on April 3-6 held under the auspices of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe in Key West, Florida. Since then, Presidents Aliyev and Kocharian have met twice more. The OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairmen (the United States, Russia and France) also visited the region in May and July, seeking to further peace negotiations and underscore the importance of maintaining the current cease-fire.
From the beginning, the Bush administration has been an active, key participant in the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process. In fact, President Bush discussed this conflict on his tenth day in office with President Chirac. They - and Russian President Putin - have stayed in close touch on peacemaking efforts ever since. The cooperation exhibited among the three co-chair countries has been seamless. The peace talks in Florida were opened by Secretary of State Colin Powell, the negotiations themselves were conducted by interagency teams from Washington, Moscow and Paris working together. After the talks concluded, Presidents Aliyev and Kocharian met separately with President Bush in Washington to review how best to advance a solution on Nagorno-Karabakh. The cooperation among mediators is important and has enhanced prospects for success, but it is not enough. The key to a solution lies in the hands of the region's leaders and their people.
Presidents Aliyev and Kocharian have demonstrated a keen understanding of the long-term interests of their countries. They recognize renewed hostilities would benefit no one and that a comprehensive settlement based on mutual compromises is the key to a brighter future. They have also experienced firsthand how hard it can be to tackle such fundamental political issues: questions of war and peace, territory and people, justice and honor. Both leaders have shown considerable courage, moving in some ways ahead of their people in the quest for peace. Despite strong opposition and criticism, they have approached at the negotiating table solutions that not only protect their national interests, but also reflect the needs of the other side. The Co-Chairs have tried to assist them, offering creative solutions to bridge the considerable gulf that divides Azerbaijan and Armenia and exploring how to support the implementation of any settlement.
The potential rewards of success in these diplomatic efforts are enormous. A comprehensive peace agreement would not only banish the specter of renewed fighting, but would unlock the vast economic potential of the Caucasus. This region was once a critical geographic crossroads for the movement of people, commerce, and ideas between East and West. Today, the trenches and "no-man's land" dividing Azerbaijan and Armenia and the sealed border between Turkey and Armenia are major obstacles to the resurgence of normal trade and communications. Removing these barriers and creating a peaceful framework for relations in the region, would enable the Caucasus to quickly come into its own again as a major link between Europe and Central Asia and a key market for goods and services.
The international community is already exploring how to help implement the provisions of a possible peace agreement. Support from the United Nations, World Bank, United States, European Union and many other bilateral donors and NGOs will be crucial to ensure that if peace is achieved at the negotiating table, it will work on the ground for the people of the region. This will be a daunting task, with resettlement needed for hundreds of thousands of refugees and substantial reconstruction requirements.
Over the past two years, the Minsk Group Co-Chairs have crisscrossed the Line of Contact and minefields, visiting war-ravaged areas (and "ghost cities" such as Agdam and Fizuli) and examining directly the regional infrastructure destroyed in the fighting. We have also met with thousands of refugees in camps and settlements on both sides to better understand their plight, attitudes and needs. These visits have been difficult and often heartbreaking. The pain, suffering, and destruction we have witnessed have left a permanent impression on our hearts and minds. They have also been invaluable in strengthening our resolve to find a solution as quickly as possible. We have drawn upon these visits to further educate the international community and build support for post-conflict assistance. While there are limits to what the international community can provide, it is our belief that a post-conflict rehabilitation package can be assembled that would meet essential needs and help jump-start the economies of the region.
Two principal facts drive the ongoing peace process and provide hope that a settlement can be achieved: there is no genuine alternative to a peaceful solution; and, a compromise agreement should yield enormous rewards for all the peoples of the region in the form of greater security, prosperity and opportunity. Presidents Aliyev and Kocharian recognize this reality and have dedicated themselves to seek a negotiated settlement. The international community - the Co-Chair countries, the OSCE and many others - have responded, showing they are prepared to help and do what they can. We pray that with all parties working together, the noble goal of peace in the Caucasus can be achieved.
It is impossible to predict when a Nagorno-Karabakh settlement might be found. Negotiating peace is hard, extremely hard. Resolving the conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh entails issues every bit as complex and vexing as those in the Middle East. This demands strong, bold leaders with a vision, which can gain the support of their peoples. The barriers to peace are daunting, but not insurmountable. Today the forecast is better. The political barometer has been rising, and the hopes of the people in the region for a brighter tomorrow are growing.